Posted by lplresearch
Economic Blog
2020 has certainly been a bizarre year, and perhaps we have finally arrived at the culminating event—the US presidential election. While every election may be characterized as a major turning point in our country’s history, the context of the ongoing global pandemic makes a particularly compelling case for this year’s election.
The pandemic has certainly affected the way voters head to the polls. As of November 2, nearly 100 million Americans had voted early, according to the US Elections Project, or over 70% of all of the votes cast during the 2016 election. Of the early votes submitted, we’re currently tracking a roughly 2:1 ratio of mail-in versus in-person voting, contrasted with the 2016 election in which the number of mail-in votes and in-person early voting was nearly even—highlighting the change in voter behavior most likely due to the threat of COVID-19.
Currently, most national polls suggest former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win the election; however, some of the polls in swing states are signaling the race may be much closer. There are also a few market and economic signals pointing to a tighter race, which we discussed in our recent LPL Market Signals podcast: Market Signals for the Election.
With such a large portion of the population opting to vote early, there has been speculation of a delayed outcome, or even a contested election, which we covered in Market Responses to Election Uncertainty. While we don’t believe a legally contested election is very likely, we can understand the idea that the massive surge in early voting may cause a delay of a day or two before a winner is declared.
As we now play the waiting game for the highly anticipated results of today’s election, we once again encourage everyone to (safely) go out and vote—if you haven’t already.
In case you’ve missed some of the key Election 2020 charts:
Election Charts You Need To See Part 1
Election Charts You Need To See Part 2
Election Charts You Need To See Part 3
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
All index and market data from FactSet and Bloomberg.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value