Vote (If You Haven’t Already)

Posted by lplresearch

Economic Blog

2020 has certainly been a bizarre year, and perhaps we have finally arrived at the culminating event—the US presidential election. While every election may be characterized as a major turning point in our country’s history, the context of the ongoing global pandemic makes a particularly compelling case for this year’s election.

The pandemic has certainly affected the way voters head to the polls. As of November 2, nearly 100 million Americans had voted early, according to the US Elections Project, or over 70% of all of the votes cast during the 2016 election. Of the early votes submitted, we’re currently tracking a roughly 2:1 ratio of mail-in versus in-person voting, contrasted with the 2016 election in which the number of mail-in votes and in-person early voting was nearly even—highlighting the change in voter behavior most likely due to the threat of COVID-19.

Currently, most national polls suggest former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win the election; however, some of the polls in swing states are signaling the race may be much closer. There are also a few market and economic signals pointing to a tighter race, which we discussed in our recent LPL Market Signals podcast: Market Signals for the Election.

With such a large portion of the population opting to vote early, there has been speculation of a delayed outcome, or even a contested election, which we covered in Market Responses to Election Uncertainty. While we don’t believe a legally contested election is very likely, we can understand the idea that the massive surge in early voting may cause a delay of a day or two before a winner is declared.

As we now play the waiting game for the highly anticipated results of today’s election, we once again encourage everyone to (safely) go out and vote—if you haven’t already.

In case you’ve missed some of the key Election 2020 charts:

Election Charts You Need To See Part 1

Election Charts You Need To See Part 2

Election Charts You Need To See Part 3


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All index and market data from FactSet and Bloomberg.

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